Helena, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

434
FXUS64 KBMX 251738
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

 - There is a medium to high chance for dangerous heat conditions
   Sunday through Thursday. This will be a long-duration period
   of extreme heat conditions with no overnight relief, affecting
   anyone without adequate cooling/hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

A large plume of tropical-like moisture associated with a wave in
the northwestern Gulf is overspreading the region as surface to
700 mb flow shifts from easterly to southerly. Our morning
sounding revealed exceptionally deep moisture up to almost 500 mb.
Daytime heating and localized low-level convergence will continue
to support multiple bands of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the early evening.

The corridor of highest moisture content will begin to move west
of I-65 on Saturday as a ridge builds to our east. There will be a
notable gradient in PWAT values and rain chances from west to
east across the forecast area on Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

There were no drastic shifts from the overnight forecast for the
long term. However it is worth mentioning that rain chances could
increase late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially
across our southern counties as the ridge retreats. Sometimes the
first day of convection juxtaposed with excessive heat can result
in rather rowdy thunderstorm activity.

87/Grantham

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

Confidence in extreme heat conditions is increasing for early next
week. With the center of the high over the area beginning Sunday,
high temps will be increasing Sunday through Tuesday at least.
Highs Sunday will be in the mid 90s with upper 90s to near 100
expected by Tuesday. Heat indices will likely exceed 105 Sunday
and Monday and heat advisories will likely be needed as we get
closer to that time. By Tuesday, forecast guidance has heat
indices near or exceeding 110 in several locations. Tuesday
morning low temperatures will be in the upper 70s with some sites
nearing records for high minimum temperatures. With several days
in a row of high daytime heat indices and limited to no overnight
recovery, anyone without adequate cooling systems will be at risk.

The extreme heat could continue into Wednesday and Thursday,
though the ridge begins to shift more to our west by that point,
leading to some lower rain chances (30-50%) building into the
region. The timing of the rain is important here as we could still
see 105+ heat indices Wednesday and Thursday afternoons before
any rain activity. So while we may get past the "peak" of the heat
wave on Tuesday, the high heat indices could still lead to
continued impacts through Thursday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025

Numerous moderate to heavy showers will pass across or in the
vicinity of the TAF sites through the daylight hours, with some
possibility for embedded lightning strikes. Widespread IFR
ceilings are expected later in the TAF period around daybreak on
Saturday.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very little fire weather concerns are expected through the next few
days as a typical summertime air mass remains in place. Min RHs
should remain near or above 50% through that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  72  95 /  30  30   0  10
Anniston    72  91  73  93 /  30  30   0  10
Birmingham  73  92  75  95 /  30  30   0  10
Tuscaloosa  73  92  74  95 /  30  50   0  10
Calera      73  91  73  94 /  30  40   0  10
Auburn      72  91  74  93 /  30  20   0  10
Montgomery  73  92  73  96 /  30  40   0  10
Troy        71  92  72  95 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...87/Grantham